Three years ago American Pharoah was a stand out in all his races and went on to sweep the Triple Crown, the first horse to do this since 1978, then things went back to normal with three different horses winning the Triple Crown races both in 2016 and 2017. It remains to be seen what will happen with the 2018 series, so we will attempt to handicap the probable Preakness field using angles that have pointed at the winner in past years. It is well known that to win the Preakness, you have to have raced in the Kentucky Derby, and if the Derby is not in the horse's past performances he is an immediate toss for the win. In recent years, only Red Bullet in 2000, Bernardini in 2006, Rachel Alexandra in 2009, and Cloud Computing in 2017 skipped the Derby to win, although some would argue Rachel Alexandra was good enough to win the Derby. It should come as no surprise that the top 5 horses in the analysis all ran in the Derby. Although Pimlico is often called a speed-favoring oval, about half of the Preakness winners came from off the pace, while 1/3 of winners stalk. However in recent years rally types have not fared as well, so we are looking for horses that win from inside 4 lengths out, which would be marked as E, E/P, or P type in BRIS past performances, with S types failing on this factor.
We also recommend checking workout patterns in the final week since these are a good indicator of who is ready. Not having a work between the Derby and the Preakness used to be a negative, but perhaps this angle has been negated as recent winners Exaggerator, American Pharoah, California Chrome, I'll Have Another, Shackleford, and Lookin at Lucky (6 of the last 8) all did not post a timed work during the 2 week layoff. (2013 winner Oxbow did, en route to his upset of Derby winner Orb). But note again that all of them came out of the Derby, so with that short layoff a timed work may be unnecessary. Horses not coming from the Derby definitely should have a timed work.
Where there is a tie in points we will list the horses in alphabetical order. You can view free past performances here from BRISnet.com.
Good Magic - leads the way in the Preakness analysis, and scored on every factor we looked for. It is worth noting that every horse in the analysis has a dosage index under 4.0 so this did not affect the results. The Juvenile champion is coming off the recommended prep race, the Derby (this is such a strong angle it is worth 2 points), he has enough starts at 2 and 3 including stakes wins both seasons, is coming here off a sharp prep, has qualified on speed figures with his 105 in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) (need a 104 BRIS fig in a route race, lifetime), and has the preferred running style, which for the Preakness is the opposite of the Derby, winning from within 4 lengths off the pace rather than closing from over 4 lengths out.
The next 2 horses tied with the second most points and are listed alphabetically:
Bravazo - like Bolt d'Oro, is only missing on two angles. Finishing 6th beaten 8 lengths in the Derby did not qualify as a sharp prep, and he has not met the speed figure par of 104, his best being the 98 when winning the Risen Star (G2).
Justify - made the 2nd place grouping, not surprisingly given his wins in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) and Kentucky Derby (G1). Like in the Derby analysis, he lost his 2 points by failing to start as a juvenile; we only need 1 start at 2 (he has none) and an in-the-money stakes placing at 2.
Lone Sailor - is alone in the 3rd place spot. He comes to Baltimore off an 8th place finish in the Derby, thus missing out on the sharp race angle. His best speed figure is the 100 when finishing 2nd in the Louisiana Derby (G2), and he has no stakes win this year (in fact lifetime). In addition he is a deep closer, not recommended here.
The next 2 horses tied with the second most points and are listed alphabetically:
Diamond King - is the first horse in our analysis to have skipped the Derby, coming here off a win in the Federico Tesio Stakes at Laurel. He is also short on starts this year with 2 (we look for 3 starts), and his best speed figure is the 95 earned in the Tesio.
Givemeaminit - finished 3rd in the Pat Day Mile (G3) on the Derby undercard giving him a sharp prep 2 weeks out. He lacks a stakes win this year and his best speed figure in a route was the 90 when finishing 4th in the Louisiana Derby (G2), well short of the 104 par.
Sporting Chance - is alone in the 8th place spot. He finished 4th behind Givemeaminit in the Pat Day Mile (G3), beaten 8 lengths so despite being 2 weeks out, was not sharp. Although he has a stakes win at 2, the Hopeful (G1) at Saratoga, he lacks a stakes win his year. His best speed figure is the 95 finishing 3rd in the Blue Grass (G2).
The next 2 horses tied with the second most points and are listed alphabetically:
Pony Up - is another newcomer to the Triple Crown circus, off a 3rd place finish in the Lexington (G2), which is a sharp prep but beyond the 30 day limit preferred for the Preakness. He tends to close from well off the pace, does not have a stakes win this year, and his best speed figure is a 99 when finishing a close second in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3).
Quip - won the Tampa Bay Derby (G2) then was second in the Arkansas Derby (G1) but has been unraced since, so he has a sharp prep but off a long 35 day layoff. He only has 2 starts this year, did not finish in the money in a stakes race as a juvenile (7th in the Kentucky Jockey Club [G2]), and has a best speed figure of 98 earned at Tampa.
Tenfold - sits alone ranked last in the Preakness analysis. Like Justify he is an unraced juvenile with a front-running style but the similarities end there. He only scored on 3 factors -- 3 starts this year, races close to the front, and his dosage is under 4. He comes here off a 5th place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1), not sharp and 35 days out, has no stakes wins, and his best speed figure is a 94.
2018 Triple Crown quick links:
Justify just great in the Belmont Stakes (G1) - Justify went to the front and never looked back, winning the 150th Belmont Stakes (G1) by 1 3/4 lengths to become the 13th Triple Crown winner. Late closing Gronkowski finished second with Hofburg third. Get the results, charts, and photos here.
Belmont Undercard Stakes Results - There were nine other stakes on the 2018 Belmont undercard, including the Manhattan Handicap (G1), Just a Game Stakes (G1), Metropolitan Handicap (G1), Acorn Stakes (G1), and Ogden Phipps Stakes (G1) won by Spring Quality, A Raving Beauty, Bee Jersey, Monomoy Girl, and Abel Tasman. Get the results, charts, and photos for all nine here.
2018 Belmont Festival Friday Stakes Results - Friday at Belmont Park had 5 stakes races: the True North (G2) won by Imperial Hint, the New York Stakes (G2) won by Fourstar Crook, the Belmont Gold Cup Invitational (G2) won by Call to Mind, the Bed o'Roses Invitational (G3) won by Lewis Bay, and the Tremont Stakes won by Our Braintrust. Get the results, charts, and photos here.
Intercontinental (G3), Wonder Again (G3), and Astoria Stakes - The Belmont Stakes Festival kicked off on Thursday with three stakes races, the Intercontinental (G3) won by La Sardane, the Wonder Again Stakes (G3) won by La Signare, and the Astoria Stakes won by Athens Queen. Get the results, charts, and photos here.
Thursday Morning Belmont Stakes Photos - Thursday morning at Belmont Park, all 10 of the Belmont Stakes horses, including Triple Crown hopeful Justify, were out on the track. Lots of photos from the day including bonus horses Hoppertunity and Abel Tasman.
Wednesday Belmont Stakes Photos - Wednesday at Belmont Park, Triple Crown hopeful Justify arrived along with stablemate Restoring Hope to join the rest of the field already there. Lots of photos from the day including Hofburg and Gronkowski on the track in the morning.
2018 Belmont Contenders at Churchill Downs - Monday at Churchill Downs, Justify had his final timed work before the Belmont breezing 5 furlongs in 1:01.40. Lots of photos from this morning of Justify and crew, plus Tenfold and Restoring Hope.
2018 Belmont Contenders at Churchill Downs - Photos and comments for Justify, Bravazo, Free Drop Billy, and Restoring Hope plus Oaks winner Monomoy Girl from Sunday at Churchill Downs. Both Free Drop Billy and Monomoy Girl had timed works.
2018 Belmont Contenders at Churchill Downs - Photos and comments for Justify, Bravazo, Tenfold, Free Drop Billy, and Restoring Hope from Friday and Saturday at Churchill Downs as they prepare for the Belmont Stakes.
Justify wins the Preakness (G1) - Favorite Justify led all the way in the fog and slop to win the 2018 Preakness (G1) by a 1/2 length over Bravazo and a late closing Tenfold another neck back. He will go on to the Belmont undefeated. Get the results, chart, and photos here.
Preakness Undercard Stakes Results - There were 7 other stakes on Preakness day but because of the rain only one of the turf races, the Gallorette (G3) won by Ultra Brat, stayed on the grass. The Dixie Stakes (G3) was won by Fire Away on the dirt and the Maryland Sprint Stakes (G3) won by Switzerland. Get the results, charts, and photos for all 7 races here.
Black-Eyed Susan Day Results - Red Ruby splashed home by 4 3/4 lenghts to win the 2018 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) at Pimlico in the slop on Friday. There were 6 other stakes on the card including the Pimlico Special (G3) won by Irish War Cry, the Allaire Dupont Distaff (G3) won by Song of Spring, and the Miss Preakness Stakes (G3) won by Happy Like a Fool. Get the results, charts, and photos for all 7 races here.
2018 Alibi Breakfast - The traditional Alibi Breakfast was held on Thursday May 17, before the 143rd running of the Preakness Stakes. Connections of some of the 8 Preakness entrants were on hand to swap stories about their horse as well as watch the presentation of the annual awards.
Thursday Preakness Photos - Photos and comments for 7 of the 8 Preakness horses from a rainy Thursday morning at Pimlico, where the rain only stopped for Justify to go out and poor Good Magic got dumped on.
2018 Preakness Entries - It will be only a field of 8 to challenge Justify in the Preakness on Saturday. Check out all the horses entered and links to full profiles of each horse with photos. Justify drew post 7 and is the 1-2 morning line favorite.
Wednesday Preakness Photos - Photos and comments for 7 of the 8 Preakness horses from Wednesday afternoon at Pimlico, including Good Magic, Bravazo, and Sporting Chance on the track plus the arrival of Justify, Quip, Lone Sailor, and Diamond King.
Tuesday Preakness Photos - Photos and comments for four of the Preakness horses from Tuesday afternoon at Pimlico, including Good Magic, Bravazo, Sporting Chance, and Tenfold who arrived at the track today plus bonus pic of the Budweiser Clydesdales.
2018 Preakness Entries - It will be only a field of 8 to challenge Justify in the Preakness on Saturday. Check out all the horses entered and links to full profiles of each horse with photos. Justify drew post 7 and is the 1-2 morning line favorite.
Thursday Preakness Photos - Photos and comments for 7 of the 8 Preakness horses from a rainy Thursday morning at Pimlico, where the rain only stopped for Justify to go out and poor Good Magic got dumped on.
Wednesday Preakness Photos - Photos and comments for 7 of the 8 Preakness horses from Wednesday afternoon at Pimlico, including Good Magic, Bravazo, and Sporting Chance on the track plus the arrival of Justify, Quip, Lone Sailor, and Diamond King.
Tuesday Preakness Photos - Photos and comments for four of the Preakness horses from Tuesday afternoon at Pimlico, including Good Magic, Bravazo, Sporting Chance, and Tenfold who arrived at the track today plus bonus pics of the Budweiser Clydesdales.
Analyzing the top Preakness Contenders - Our annual analysis of the contenders to see who best matches the profile of a Preakness winner. The top pick is no surprise this year, even if it isn't Justify.
Justify splashes to the finish in the Kentucky Derby (G1) - Favorite Justify pressed the pace the whole way before winning the Kentucky Derby (G1) by 2 1/2 lengths in the slop over Good Magic with late closing Audible third. Get the results, chart, and photos here.
The 2018 Kentucky Derby Field - Check out a photo of each horse on Derby day from during the post parade. Includes links to their profiles and where they finished in the race.
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Kentucky Derby Undercard Stakes Results - There were 6 other stakes on the card today with the Derby, including the Old Forester Turf Classic (G1) won by Yoshida, the Humana Distaff (G1) won by American Gal, the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2) won by Proctor's Ledge, the Churchill Downs Stakes (G2) won by Limousine Liberal, the American Turf (G2) won by Maraud, and the Pat Day Mile (G3) won by Funny Duck. Get the results, charts, and photos here.
Monomoy Girl takes the Kentucky Oaks (G1) - Monomoy Girl survived an objection from John Velazquez aboard second place finisher Wonder Gadot to win the 2018 Kentucky Oaks by 1/2 a length with favorite Midnight Bisou third. Get the results, chart, and photos here.
Kentucky Oaks Undercard Stakes Results - There were 5 other stakes on the card today with the Oaks, including the La Troienne (G1) won by Salty, the Alysheba (G2) won by Backyard Heaven, the Eight Belles (G2) won by Mia Mischief, the Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G3) won by Will Call, and the Edgewood Stakes (G3) won by Toinette. Get the results, charts, and photos here.
Kentucky Derby Entries - A field of 20 plus one also-eligible was entered for the 144th Kentucky Derby on Tuesday morning at Churchill Downs. Favorite Justify drew post 7 with morning line odds are 3-1. Get lots of info and links to full profiles of each horse with photos.
Kentucky Derby Prep Races - What races should a horse prep in to win the Kentucky Derby? Some races may seem obvious, but have not produced a Derby winner in many years. Find out which races are the best preps here.
2018 Kentucky Derby Analysis - Our annual analysis of the top contenders to try and select a winner by matching each to the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner using many of the more popular angles and statistical trends. The top horse will surprise you, but the bottom horse will surprise you even more!
2018 Kentucky Oaks Entries - A full field of 14 three-year-old fillies were entered for the 144th Longines Kentucky Oaks to be run at Churchill Downs on Friday afternoon. Rachel Alexandra (G2) and Ashland (G1) winner Monomoy Girl is the 2-1 morning line favorite but drew the far outside post.
Kentucky Derby Winners and Auction Prices - Bigger may seem better, but in the case of Kentucky Derby horses who sold at auction, less is more. Here is a look at how (badly) high priced auction purchases have done in the Kentucky Derby and the auction prices for this year's top Derby contenders.
Kentucky Derby Notes for 4/30 - Combatant made his final timed work at Churchill Downs and during the day all the Derby horses finally arrived at the track. Entries were drawn for the Oaks and the Derby will be drawn on Tuesday. Check out comments and photos for the Derby and Oaks horses, probable starters for the rest of the Derby weekend stakes, and more. Previous: 4/29, 4/28, 4/27, 4/26, 4/25, 4/24, 4/23, 4/22, 4/21
Review: Triple Crown Handicapper 2018 - by Jim Mazur. Includes lots of stats for all 3 races and explains how to use a system of statistically derived negative angles to eliminate the "bad" picks. Revamped for 2018 with updated info.
Triple Crown Trail - 2018 prep race schedule with results for all the preps.
The Incomparable Kentucky Derby - Only the best horses get in the Kentucky Derby and you can bet on them with the best at William Hill.
2018 Kentucky Derby Security and Parking - After the new remodel, entry and parking are very different this year. Get details about that plus what you can and cannot bring to Churchill Downs on Kentucky Derby day. Prohibited items will be confiscated and disposed of, so be careful!
Kentucky Derby Traditions - Find out all about the big Derby Traditions: the rose garland, the trophy, the Twin Spires, mint juleps, singing "My Old Kentucy Home", fancy hats, celebrities and the annual Derby glasses.
Fillies in the Kentucky Derby - a look at the 39 fillies who have contested the Run for the Roses and how they did. So far there have been 3 wins, 2 seconds, and 5 thirds.
DRF Kentucky Derby Special - Lots of good info like past winners preps, contenders, past performances, and latest news.
Review: Kentucky Derby Greatest Moments - Commemorative DVD from Churchill Downs with video from 27 different runnings along with interviews, photos, and historical info. Definitely recommended for any racing fan!
Review: Churchill Downs - America's Most Historic Racetrack by Kimberly Gatto. An entertaining and informative account of the history of the track and it's most famous race, the Kentucky Derby, with lots of photos. Definitely recommended.