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Preakness Entries Thorncliffe Stakes Kentucky Derby Results Kentucky Oaks Resullts Thurby Results |
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Date: 04/30/2025
Using historical trends and the past performances for the 21 Kentucky Derby entrants by points, we have counted several factors to develop the following ranked list. Each horse was given points for his conformation to a Derby winners profile. Of course this does not guarantee that the horse with the most points will win, but it does give you a good idea who to eliminate from the winning position. It follows that if a horse doesn't fit the winner's profile, he may still finish in the money, much like how handicappers might bet anti-bias horses on the bottom of exotics. We also recommend checking workout patterns in the final week since these are a good indicator of who is ready. Preferably you're looking for horses that have at least two workouts over the Churchill Downs surface and at least one bullet work.
Note that with the 20-stall gate (with narrower stalls) which debuted in 2020, there is no longer a gap between 14 and 15, and post 1 is positioned slightly further off the rail than before. Since the post position draw was moved to Saturday (a week before the race) we are able to incorporate these statistics as well. Posts 5, 8, 10, 15, and 20 get a bonus point as those have a 10% win percentage since the starting gate debuted in 1930 (Big Brown and Rich Strike are the two horses to win from the 20) while 6, 11, 14, and 17 lose a point as those are 2.4% or worse (no horse has won from 17). Although the rail, generally considered poor, has not won since 1986, it does have an 8.5% win rate so no points are scored nor deducted. Also note that the analysis is based on post positions as assigned at the draw; should there be scratches, horses to the outside of the scratched horse move inward (so, Sandman could start from the more favorable 16 or 15 rather than the unfavorable 17).
Also new for this year we are considering auction prices, as horses that sold for $500,000 or more don't usually win. We prefer "cheaper" horses, homebreds, and horses that never sold at auction.
As there weren't as many drop-offs as in past years, the cutoff to make the main body of the field was 39 points (earned by Render Judgment), while the also-eligible Baeza had 37.5 points. This year the points were reduced by 25% for races with less than 6 horses, such as the Santa Anita Derby.
As observed the last several years, we again have a tight group under our analysis, suggesting that the points system is more effective at weeding out pretenders compared to the former graded earnings scheme. We will use the Derby points ranking list as our tiebreaker when horses scored equally in the analysis, rather than merely calling it a tie between x number of horses; this will be noted when this tiebreaker was used. We are looking for 100+ BRIS speed figures this year, and 90+ figures last year (2-year-old races). For horses with foreign races in their past performances, the Racing Post ratings if available are converted to BRIS figures using Steve Roman's equivalency chart (Dr. Roman has "retired" from racing and his website is no longer available). Dr. Roman's departure from the business will affect this analysis in future years as the "chefs" list will no longer be updated; this is seen by the lack of dosage profile points as the final list of chefs drop further back in the pedigrees. Most horses in the field qualified on Dosage (Index 4.00 or less, Center of Distribution 1.00 or less). Given the reduction in accuracy we may soon remove this from the analysis but we will retain it until we consistently see the entire field qualify on both numbers. The Jockey Club discontinued its Experimental Free Handicap (renamed the "Top 2-Year-Old Rankings" for its final edition in 2018) marking the end of the Dual Qualifier angle which made use of the handicap in combination with Dosage.
For more information on the trends and statistics used in this analysis, check out my article on Handicapping the Derby, the book Betting the Kentucky Derby by Dean Keppler, and Triple Crown Handicapper by Jim Mazur. This is an older article on angles from American Turf Monthly. This is the most over-analyzed race on the planet, so there are lots of trends and angles you can use. You can get free past performances for the Derby contenders from BRISnet.com here (look for Citizen Bull).
Here are the contenders presented in order of preference.
The first 2 contenders tied and are presented in Derby points order:
Burnham Square tops this year's analysis with the tiebreaker but as was the case last 2 years, no horse "swept" all factors so even the top choice has knocks. He comes to the Derby off a nose victory over East Avenue in the Blue Grass Stakes giving in a sharp prep within the 4 week window. He has enough starts at 2 and 3, was not sold at auction, and ran a 101 BRIS when winning the Holy Bull, as well as running 94 when breaking maiden as a juvenile. He also made 1 start at Churchill last year, and his BRIS runstyle is "P 2" which means he presses the pace but can also rally as he did in the Blue Grass. He did not run in stakes company at 2 and his Dosage Index (DI) is the highest in the field at 7.80 but does qualify with his 0.95 Center of Distribution (CD). Brian Hernandez Jr., who picked up the mount in the Blue Grass, retains the ride aboard the 12-1 morning line shot from post 9 for trainer Ian Wilkes.
Owen Almighty ranks second due the tiebreaker rule. He qualifies with his DI of 3.57 and CD of 0.81, has enough starts at 2 and 3, was stakes-placed as a juvenile (2nd in the Iroquois at Churchill Downs earning a 90 BRIS - another 2 points), has a stakes win at 3 (Tampa Bay Derby), and is coming off a 4 week layoff. However, his final prep was a 6th in the Blue Grass which is not sharp, his best figure this year is short of par at 97 (Sam F. Davis Stakes), and he races close to the lead (BRIS style E/P 7). He sold at auction for $350,000, less than $500,000 which is a positive. Since he drew post 20 he also gets a bonus point for favorable post position. New jockey Javier Castellano will be aboard the 30-1 shot for trainer Brian Lynch.
The next 2 contenders tied and are presented in Derby points order:
Journalism is the 3-1 morning line favorite and so it is not a surprise that he ranks high. He comes here off his Santa Anita Derby win, giving him a stakes win at 3 with a 108 BRIS figure and a sharp prep inside 4 weeks. He qualifies on both Dosage factors, had a stakes win at 2 (the Los Alamitos Futurity) with as 99 figure, more than meeting the 90 par, in his 3rd start as a juvenile. Among his knocks, he races close to the lead (BRIS style E/P 5), sold at auction for a whopping $850,000, and only raced twice this year. Since he drew post 8 he also gets a bonus point for favorable post position. Regular rider Umberto Rispoli retains the mount for trainer Mike McCarthy.
Final Gambit qualifies on Dosage and comes here off his off-the-pace romp in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) earning him a sharp prep with a 101 BRIS figure, in his third start this year, after making the 1 required start as a juvenile. As a Juddmonte homebred he has never been sold at auction, and as he has demonstrated in 3 of his 3 starts, he is a "sustained" (off the pace) runner, rated by BRIS as "S 3". On the downside he never competed in a stakes as a juvenile, and ran a slow 81 figure in that one start, and is coming off a 6 week layoff. Regular rider Luan Machado retains the mount aboard the 30-1 shot for trainer Brad Cox from post 3.
The next 6 contenders tied and are presented in Derby points order
Sandman comes to the Derby off a 2 1/2 length win in the Arkansas Derby (G1) earning him a stakes win at 3, a sharp prep, and a 101 BRIS figure. As a juvenile he finished third in the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs and ended his juvenile campaign with a 91 BRIS effort in an allowance win, all of which are positives. He is a confirmed closer (BRIS runstyle "S 0") and qualifies on both Dosage factors. However the Arkansas Derby is now run 5 weeks before the Roses, he sold for $1.2 million at auction, raced 5 times as a juvenile (our upper limit is 3 starts), and he drew the very unfavorable post 17 (which has never won the Derby) which deducts a point. Jose Ortiz, who rode in the Arkansas Derby, retains the mount aboard the 6-1 third choice for trainer Mark Casse.
Rodriguez qualifies on both Dosage factors, sold at auction for $485,000 (so under the $500,000 threshold), and comes to Louisville of a 3 1/2 length win in the Wood Memorial (G2), a sharp prep 4 weeks out where he earned 105 BRIS figure in his 4th start as a 3-year-old. As a juvenile did start once. However he runs on the lead (BRIS runstyle "E 7"), did not compete in stakes as a juvenile and ran short of par 89 BRIS, and has never run at Churchill Downs. Mike Smith, who rode him for the first time in the Wood, retains the mount from post 4 aboard the 12-1 shot for trainer Bob Baffert.
Tiztastic won the Louisiana Derby (G2) meeting par with a 100 BRIS figure giving him a sharp prep but off a 6 week layoff in his 3rd start as a 3-year-old. As a juvenile he was stakes placed in both the Street Sense (G3) and Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) both at Churchill Downs, but only ran a best figure of 88, short of par. He narrowly qualifies on Dosage (DI 4.00, CD 0.70), sold at auction for $335,000, but ran 5 times as a juvenile (2 more than the limit). He loses a point for drawing the unfavorable post 14 but does have a favorable "S 1" runstyle. Joel Rosario, who rode him to victory at the Fair Grounds, retains the mount aboard the 20-1 shot for trainer Steve Asmussen.
Sovereignty comes here off a second place finish in the Florida Derby (G1), a sharp prep but 5 weeks out, after winning the Fountain of Youth (G1) giving him the required stakes win at 3 but just short of par with a 99 BRIS figure. He always comes from well off the pace (BRIS style "S 0") and was never sold at auction, as a Godolphin homebred. He only raced twice so far this year (1 short of par) after racing three times as a juvenile, including winning the Street Sense (G3) at Churchill Downs earning a 93 figure, meeting par. His DI is 4.33, missing par, but his CD qualifies at 0.88. Junior Alvarado, who rode in his first 4 starts, regains the ride aboard the 5-1 second choice from post 18 for trainer Bill Mott.
American Promise won the Virginia Derby by 7 3/4 lengths scoring a 105 BRIS figure, a stakes win, and a sharp prep in his third start as a 3-year-old but the longest layoff of any entrant this year, 7 weeks. He qualifies on both Dosage factors, aand ran a 92 figure in his last start as a juvenile. However, he ran 6 times last year (our limit is 3), not in any stakes, and his BRIS runstyle of "E 5" means he is always contesting the early lead. He earns a point for drawing a favorite post (5), but loses a point for selling at auction for $750,000. Nik Juarez, who picked up the mount at Colonial, will be in the irons Saturday aboard the 30-1 longshot for trainer D. Wayne Lukas.
Render Judgment is the first horse in the analysis not coming off a sharp prep, his being a 5th place effort beaten 4 lengths in the Blue Grass (G1) in his third start at 3 after finishing 2nd in the Virginia Derby with a career best (but short of par) 96 BRIS figure. He sold at auction for $310,000, and can press the pace (BRIS style P 2). As a juvenile he ran 4 times (1 more than the limit) including a third place finish in the Gun Runner at Fair Grounds after finishing 5th in the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs, with his best figure at 2 being "paired tops" of 87 in his first 2 starts. He qualifies on dosage and gets a bonus point for drawing a favorable post 15. New jockey Julien Leparoux picks up the mount aboard the 30-1 longshot for trainer Ken McPeek.
The next 3 contenders tied and are presented in Derby points order:
Coal Battle finished 3rd in the Arkansas Derby (G1) which technically qualifies as a sharp prep in his third start at 3, but beaten 7 lengths and with just a 93 BRIS figure. Before that race he won the Rebel (G2) running a career best (but still short of par) 98 figure. He was over-raced at 2 with 5 starts, but won two stakes races including meeting par with a 92 BRIS in the Springboard Mile at Remington Park. He qualifies on Dosage, sold at auction for just $70,000, but usually up close to the pace (BRIS runstyle E/P 4). Regular rider Juan Vargas retains the ride aboard the 30-1 longshot from post 16 for trainer Lonnie Briley, who is saddling his first Derby starter.
East Avenue just missed in the Blue Grass (G1) beaten a nose, giving him a sharp prep 4 weeks out but with a short of par best figure of 97 in just his 2nd start at 3. As a juvenile he won the Breeders' Futurity (G1) at Churchill Downs meeting par with a 95 before a disappointing 9th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) in his 3rd start at 2. He qualifies on Dosage but lacks a stakes win at 3. As a Godolphin homebred he has never been sold at auction, and is a confirmed front-runner with a BRIS runstyle E 5. New jockey Manny Franco picks up the ride aboard the 20-1 shot from post 12 for trainer Brendan Walsh.
Grande finished second in the Wood Memorial (G2) giving him a sharp prep 4 weeks out where he earned a 101 BRIS figure. This was only his 3rd career start, all this year, so he lacks any juvenile races and stakes wins. He sold at auction for $300,000, and qualifies on Dosage, but is a confirmed front-runner with a BRIS runstyle E 6. He picks up an extra point for drawing the favorable 5 post. John Velazquez will be in the irons aboard the 20-1 shot for trainer Todd Pletcher.
The next 4 contenders tied and are presented in Derby points order
Chunk of Gold comes here off three straight second place finishes, including the Louisiana Derby (G2) for his final prep where he earned a career best 98 figure in his 3rd start at 2. So this is a sharp prep but 6 weeks out, and he still lacks a stakes win at 3, to go with his lack of stakes competition at 2, earning a short-of-par 85 winning his debut in December at Turfway. He sold at auction for just $2500, qualifies on Dosage, and rallies from off the pace with his BRIS runstyle of S 2. Regular rider Jareth Loveberry retains the mount from post 19 aboard the 30-1 longshot for trainer Ethan West.
Luxor Cafe is the first of two Japanese trained entrants, coming here off a 5 length romp in the Fukuryu Stakes where he earned a Racing Post rating of 119 which translates to a 103 BRIS figure, a sharp prep but 5 weeks out. He fails on both Dosage factors with his DI of 5.00 and CD of 1.17. He ran 3 times this year and 3 times as a juvenile, satisfying par, with stakes wins both years. He was not sold at auction. Jockey Joao Moreira, who rode in the Fukuryu Stakes, retains the ride aboard the 15-1 shot from post 7 for trainer Noriyuki Hori.
Admire Daytona is the second Japanese runner, winner of the UAE Derby (G2) in Dubai by 5 lengths earning a 107 Racing Post Rating, which translates to a 97 BRIS, short of par. One race back he was 4th in the Hyacinth Stakes earning a 110 RPR (99 BRIS), also short. He was stakes plaed in 2 of his 3 starts as a juvenile, to go with his 2 stakes wins at 3. Like Luxor Cafe he was never sold at auction. He loses a point for drawing the unfavorable 6 post. Regular rider Christophe Lemaire retains the mount aboard the 30-1 shot for trainer Yukihiro Kato.
Baeza is the only also-eligible in this year's Derby but curiously is listed at 12-1 morning line should he draw in In his only start as a juvenile he was 9th over the Del Mar turf earning a slow 79 figure in a maiden event. At 3 he broke maiden at third asking, and then followed that up with a close second in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) earning him a par-qualifying 107 BRIS figure and a sharp prep 4 weeks out. He qualifies on both Dosage factors, but sold at auction for $1.2 million which is a negative, along with his close to the pace "E/P 7" running style. Flavien Prat, who is also named to ride Neoequos (below), was named as the jockey by trainer John Shirreffs.
The next 2 contenders tied and are presented in Derby points order:
Publisher, coming to Louisville still a maiden after 7 starts, ran 4 times as a juvenile with a best figure of 91 but none in stakes company, and then 3 times at 3 including a 2nd place finish in the Arkansas Derby (G1) a sharp prep but 5 weeks put and with a short of par 98 BRIS figure. He sold at auction for a whopping $600,000, which is a knock, along with his DI of 4.33 (his CD qualifies at 0.88). He rallies from off the pace but is not a "sustained" runner, rated a "P 0" by BRIS. New jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. picks up the ride for trainer Steve Asmussen aboard the 30-1 outsider from post 13.
Neoequos is a confirmed front-runner (BRIS "E 8") here off a 3rd place finish in the Florida Derby (G1), a sharp prep but 5 weeks out in his 3rd start this year. He lacks any stakes wins, including a 96 BRIS earned when third in the Fountain of Youth. Curiously as a juvenile he ran a 101 BRIS figure in the Affirmed Stakes, his 4th start of 2024. He sold at auction for just $22,000, and he fails on Dosage Index with a 7.00, however his Center of Distribution just qualifies at 1.00. New jockey Flavien Prat (also named to ride the also-eligible Baeza) picks up the mount aboard the 30-1 outside from post 2 for trainer Saffie Joseph Jr.
The final 2 contenders are not tied and are ranked in order
Citizen Bull won the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) earning a 107 BRIS figure in his 4th start (one more than our limit), but has not carried that speed into his 3 year old season, coming to Louisville off a 4th place effort in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) earning just a 97, not a sharp prep but inside 4 weeks. Like Neoequos he is a confirmed front-runner (BRIS "E 8") and has the same dosage numbers (DI 7.00, CD 1.00) but he sold at auction for $675,000. Martin Garcia, who has ridden in all 6 starts for trainer Bob Baffert, retains the ride on the 20-1 shot and will break from the rail.
Flying Mohawk is the lowest ranked horse in this year's analysis. He comes to the Derby off a 2nd place finish in the Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3), a sharp prep but 6 weeks out and with a slow career best figure of 97 in just his 2nd start at age 3. As a juvenile he ran 4 times (1 more than the limit) with a best figure of just 87, and no stakes placings, finishing 5th in the Pilgrim (G2) over the Aqueduct turf. He sold at auction for $72,000, qualifies on Dosage, and can run from off the pace (BRIS runstyle "P 3"). He loses a point for drawing the unfavorable 11 post. Joseph Ramos retains the mount aboard the 30-1 longshot for trainer Whit Beckman.
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