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Analyzing the Preakness Contenders
Date: 05/19/2023
In 2015 American Pharoah was a stand out in all his races and went on to sweep the Triple Crown, the first horse to do this since 1978, then things went back to normal with three different horses winning the Triple Crown races both in 2016 and 2017. Then in 2019 Justify broke all the rules by not only winning the Derby without racing as a juvenile, but completing the Triple Crown sweep before retiring after only six starts. Once again we will handicap the Preakness field using angles that have pointed at the winner in past years. It is well known that to win the Preakness, you have to have raced in the Kentucky Derby, and if the Derby is not in the horse's past performances he is an immediate toss for the win. However, in recent years, Rombauer (2021), Swiss Skydiver (2020), Cloud Computing (2017), and then a gap back to Rachel Alexandra (2009) pulled off the feat, however Oaks runner-up Swiss Skydiver may have been helped by the COVID-adjusted Triple Crown schedule that year.
This year's short field of 8 is disappointing, with Derby winner Mage being the only horse out of the 18 to Run for the Roses beneath the Twin Spires to enter the Preakness, and it follows that he would be an absolute standout in this race. On paper he should romp, but given he was a 15-1 longshot at Churchill Downs, this might be a chance to beat him when he goes off at close to even money.
We also recommend checking workout patterns in the final week since these are a good indicator of who is ready. Not having a work between the Derby and the Preakness used to be a negative, but several recent winners including Triple Crown winners Justify and American Pharoah did not have a timed work during the 2 week layoff so this is no longer worthy of consideration. But note again that all of them lacking timed works came out of the Derby, so with that short layoff a timed work may be unnecessary. Horses not coming from the Derby nor from a similarly short layoff (such as Armagnac off a 13 day break) definitely need a timed work.
Where there is a tie in points we will list the horses in morning line odds order as the tiebreaker. You can view free past performances here from BRISnet.com (looks for First Mission).
Mage is the runaway winner in this year's analysis but he does not check all of the boxes. He gets the two points for coming out of the Derby, but even without the bonus point he would still be the top scoring horse. The Derby win gives him a sharp prep inside 30 days, a stakes win at 3, a graded stakes 1st or 2nd, and a triple digit BRIS figure at 3 (rated 103 in the Derby). However, like Justify he did not race as a juvenile so he misses out on the two factors involving juvenile performance, and finally he is a deep closer in race favoring stalkers. Javier Castellano, who picked up the mount in the Derby, remains in the irons aboard the 8-5 favorite from post 3 for trainer Gustavo Delgado.
Red Route One ranks second. He won the listed Bath House Row Stakes at Oaklawn, a sharp prep and 3-year-old stakes win inside 30 days, where he earned a 98 BRIS figure, 2 points short of par. He also finished second in the Rebel Stakes giving him a 1st or 2nd place finish in a graded stakes. As a juvenile his best race was 3rd in the Breeders' Futurity (G1) with a BRIS figure of 88, well below the 95 par. Like Mage he is also a deep closer. Joel Rosario rides again for trainer Steve Asmussen aboard the 10-1 shot from post 5.
First Mission is the third ranked horse, and like Mage, did not race as a juvenile. He won the Lexington (G3), giving him a sharp prep, a graded stakes win at 3, and a 103 BRIS fig, but off a 35 day layoff when the maximum is 30. However, he of course misses out on all the juvenile factors and he races close to the pace rather than stalks. Regular rider Luis Saez gets the call aboard the 5-2 second choice from the outside 8 stall for trainer Brad Cox. Update: First Mission was a vet scratch on Friday morning due to a left hind leg issue.
The rest of the field scored equal points so are ranked in morning line odds order.
National Treasure marks the return to Triple Crown competition for trainer Bob Baffert, after racing for Tim Yakteen for his last start, a 4th place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Clearly not a sharp prep, short of BRIS par (scored 97), and beyond the 30 day limit. He did finish second in the American Pharoah (G1) where he scored a career best 101 figure, which meets the juvenile requirements of a stakes placing. He also run close to the pace rather than stalks. John Velazquez, who has been aboard for all 5 of his starts, will be in the irons aboard the 4-1 third choice, breaking from the rail.
Blazing Sevens finished third in the Blue Grass (G1), a sharp prep earning him a short-of-par 95 but 35 days out. As a juvenile he won the Champagne Stakes (G1) giving him a graded stakes 1st or 2nd and a stakes placing at 2, but he did not win a stakes at 3. His 2-year-old best figure of 94 when 4th in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile (G1) is 1 point off par. Finally he is a deep closer, coming from well off the pace in almost every start. Irad Ortiz Jr., who picked up the ride in the Blue Grass, retains the mount aboard the 6-1 fourth choice from post 7 for trainer Chad Brown.
Perform won the Federico Tesio Stakes earning a career best 94 figure in the main local prep for the Preakness (but is run at Laurel, instead of Pimlico). This does qualify as a sharp prep but 35 days out. As a juvenile he did not compete in any stakes and ran a best figure of 82. However, he is the only stalker in the field; BRIS has him as "S 3" and he did come from off the pace in the Tesio, mostly because he stumbled at the start, but ran a classic stalking trip when breaking his maiden in the start before the Tesio so we will award him the point. Feargal Lynch, who picked up the ride in the Tesio, retains the mount aboard the 15-1 shot from post 6 for trainer Shug McGaughey.
Coffeewithchris is the local hope, trying to become the first Maryland-bred since Deputed Testimony (1983) to win the state's signature race. He finished fifth in the Tesio behind Perform, clearly not a sharp prep and beyond 30 days. He did win the Miracle Wood, giving him the required stakes win at 3, but with a BRIS fig of 92, his best as a 3-year-old. At 2 he won the Heft Stakes scoring a 95 figure which did meet that par and giving him a stakes placing that season. He has never run in a graded stakes and he is always on or close to the lead. Regular rider Jaime Rodriguez will be in the irons from post 4 for owner-trainer John Salzman Jr. aboard the 20-1 longshot.
Chase the Chaos is the longest shot on the morning line at 50-1 and since he tied for minimum points he also ranks last here. He won the El Camino Real Derby (career best BRIS of 90) giving him the required stakes win, but comes here off an 8th place effort in the California Derby, not a sharp prep but inside 30 days. As a juvenile he finished second in the Gold Rush Stakes (BRIS 88), meeting the stakes ITM requirement at 2, but his only graded stakes run was a distant 7th in the San Felipe (G2) so he doesn't earn that point either. Finally, he is officially a "presser" by BRIS ("P 0") but his running lines suggest he closes from off the pace, including from 10 lengths back in the El Camino Real Derby, so we cannot consider him a stalker. Maryland-based jockey Sheldon Russell replaces regular rider and Northern California-based Armando Ayuso on Saturday, breaking from post 2 for trainer Ed Moger Jr.
2023 Triple Crown quick links:
- Belmont Entries - With no Triple Crown on the line this year, a small field of only 9 horses was entered with Forte the favorite at 5-2 in post 6. Check out all the entries with full profiles and photos.
- Analyzing the Belmont Stakes Contenders - Our annual analysis using popular angles and statistical trends to see who best matches the profile of a Belmont winner. This year the top horse hasn't run in a Triple Crown race yet!
- Belmont Stakes Workouts - Check out photos from Wednesday morning at Belmont Park with Hit Show and Il Miracolo. Thursday works and racing were cancelled due to the poor air quality.
- Belmont Stakes Workouts - Entries for the Belmont will be drawn on Tuesday. Here are Forte and Tapit Trice in their final timed works and Preakness winner National Treasure galloping on Saturday at Belmont Park.
- National Treasure holds on in the Preakness (G1) - Saturday at Pimlico, National Treasure took the lead early and held off Blazing Sevens by a head to win the Preakness Stakes (G1) while favorite Mage finished third. Get the results, chart, and photos here.
- Preakness Undercard Stakes Results - There were 9 other stakes on Preakness day headlined by the Dinner Party Stakes (G3) won by Never Explain, the Chick Lang Stakes (G3) won by Ryvit, the Maryland Sprint Stakes (G3) won by Straight No Chaser, the Gallorette (G3) won by Whitebeam, and the Sir Barton won by Arabian Lion. Get the results, charts, and photos for all 9 races here.
- Black-Eyed Susan Day Results - Taxed rallied to win the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes (G2) by 3 3/4 lengths over Hoosier Philly and favorite Faiza at Pimlico on Friday. There were 5 other stakes on the card including the Pimlico Special (G3) won by Rattle N Roll, the Allaire Dupont Distaff won by Interstate Daydream, and the Miss Preakness Stakes (G3) won by Maple Leaf Mel. Get the results, charts, and photos for all 6 races here.
- 2023 Alibi Breakfast - The traditional Alibi Breakfast was on Thursday May 18, before the 148th running of the Preakness Stakes. Connections of four of the eight Preakness entrants were on hand to swap stories about their horse as well as watch the presentation of the annual awards.
- 2023 Preakness Thursday Photos - Thursday all of the Preakness horses were on the track on a cool, sunny morning. Photos of all 8 of the Preakness horses, including Mage, First Mission, and National Treasure.
- Preakness Entries - A field of only 8 was entered for the Preakness with Mage the only Derby horse in the race. He is the 8-5 favorite in post 3 with First Mission the second choice at 5-2 in post 8. Check out the horses with post positions, odds, and free past performances.
- Analyzing the top Preakness Contenders - Our annual analysis of the contenders to see who best matches the profile of a Preakness winner. It is no surprise that Mage is the runaway winner in this year's analysis.
- Preakness Weather Forecasts - up to 15 days in advance. Looks good for now, warm and overcast.
- Belmont Stakes Tickets on eBay.com
- Mage a magical winner in the 2023 Kentucky Derby (G1) - Saturday at Churchill Downs, long shot Mage rallied from far back to win the Kentucky Derby (G1) by a length over Two Phil's and favorite Angel of Empire. Get the results, chart, and photos here.
- 2023 Kentucky Derby Field - Photos for each horse from the post parade plus where they finished and a link to their profile.
- Miscellaneous Kentucky Derby Photos - All kinds of photos from Oaks day and Derby Day, including trophies, flowers, anthem singers, scenic shots, and more. Check out the photos.
- Kentucky Derby Undercard Stakes Results - There were 7 other graded stakes on the card with the Derby, including the Old Forester Turf Classic (G1) won by Up to the Mark, the Churchill Distaff Turf Mile (G2) won by Fluffy Socks, the Derby City Distaff (G1) won by Matareya, the Churchill Downs Stakes (G1) won by Cody's Wish, the American Turf (G2) won by Webslinger, the Pat Day Mile (G3) won by General Jim, and the Twin Spires Turf Sprint (G2) won by Nobals. Get the results, charts, and photos here. New!
- Kentucky Derby Entries - A field of 20 plus three also-eligibles were entered for the 149th Kentucky Derby on Monday. Florida Derby winner Forte was set as the morning line favorite at 3-1 from post 15. Get all the horses, post positions, morning line odds, and free past performances here. FYI - there are now 5 scratches: Practical Move, Lord Miles, Continuar, Skinner, and Forte. All the AEs are in the race.
- Pretty Mischievous wins the 2023 Kentucky Oaks (G1) - Friday at Churchill Downs, longshot Pretty Mischievous held off Gambling Girl by a neck to win the Kentucky Oaks (G1) by a neck with The Alys Look third and favorite Wet Paint fourth. Get the results, chart, and photos here.
- Kentucky Oaks Undercard Stakes Results - There were 6 other stakes on the card today with the Oaks, including the La Troienne (G1) won by Played Hard, the Alysheba (G2) won by Smile Happy, the Eight Belles (G2) won by Red Carpet Ready, the Edgewood Stakes (G2) won by Heavenly Sunday, the Modesty (G3) won by Didia, and the Unbridled Sidney won by Caravel. Get the results, charts, and photos here.
- Thursday Kentucky Derby Photos - 20 Kentucky Derby horses and 10 Kentucky Oaks fillies from Thursday morning on the track or paddock schooling at Churchill Downs. Two loose horses this morning! Also, Practical Move scratched letting in Cyclone Mischief and later Lord Miles scratched letting in Mandarin Hero. This evening Continuar scratched so now King Russell is in as well. And Friday morning Skinner scratched so only 19 in the race.
- 2023 Kentucky Derby Analysis - Our annual analysis of the top contenders to try and select a winner by matching each to the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner using many of the more popular angles and statistical trends. This year the field is very evenly matched but there is a narrow winner for top choice but it isn't the favorite.
- Wednesday Kentucky Derby Photos - 15 Kentucky Derby horses and 14 Kentucky Oaks fillies from Wednesday morning on the track or paddock schooling at Churchill Downs, plus last year's Derby winner Rich Strike.
- Tuesday Kentucky Derby Photos - 18 Kentucky Derby horses and 13 Kentucky Oaks fillies from Tuesday morning on the track or paddock schooling at Churchill Downs. Also shots of the new paddock and clubhouse turn grandstand and Rich Strike.
- Kentucky Oaks Entries - On Monday the post positions were drawn for the 149th Longines Kentucky Oaks and a full field of 14 3-year-old fillies plus three also-eligibles made the entry box, with 5-2 morning line favorite Wet Paint drawing post 7. Get the horses, post positions, and free past performances here.
- Kentucky Derby Points List - this is what determines which horses can get in the Kentucky Derby field.
- 2023 Road to the Kentucky Derby - All the point earning races on the Triple Crown Trail leading up to the Kentucky Derby with results and winners updated as they are run.
- 2023 Triple Crown Late Nominations - Sunland Derby (G3) winner Wild on Ice headlines the list of seven late Triple Crown nominations made eligible by a $6000 fee by the March 27 deadline.
- Early Triple Crown Nominations - 312 horses where nominated by the early deadline of January 29 for the 2023 Triple Crown. Trainer Todd Pletcher nominated the most with 42 followed by Brad Cox with 26. Check out all the horses and free past performances from Equibase.
- Derby prep race charts - free from DRF
- Fillies in the Preakness Stakes - a look at the 53 fillies who have run in the Preakness and how they did. So far there have been 5 wins, 5 seconds, and 8 thirds.
- Preakness Traditions - Black-eyed Susans to the winner, the Woodlawn Vase trophy, the Alibi Breakfast, painting the weather vane, and more.
- Official Preakness Page - from the Maryland Jockey Club
- Baltimore Sun Preakness Section - lots of articles and photos
- Blood Horse Triple Crown Mania
- DRF Preakness Special - lots of good info like past winners preps and past performances.
- Triple Crown Trivia Quiz - test your knowledge of the Derby, Preakness, and Belmont and compete with others.
- Send this page to a friend - know someone who would like to see this page? Click here to send them the link.
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Mage is the runaway winner in this year's analysis but he does not check all of the boxes. He gets the two points for coming out of the Derby, but even without the bonus point he would still be the top scoring horse. The Derby win gives him a sharp prep inside 30 days, a stakes win at 3, a graded stakes 1st or 2nd, and a triple digit BRIS figure at 3 (rated 103 in the Derby). However, like Justify he did not race as a juvenile so he misses out on the two factors involving juvenile performance, and finally he is a deep closer in race favoring stalkers. Javier Castellano, who picked up the mount in the Derby, remains in the irons aboard the 8-5 favorite from post 3 for trainer Gustavo Delgado.
First Mission is the third ranked horse, and like Mage, did not race as a juvenile. He won the Lexington (G3), giving him a sharp prep, a graded stakes win at 3, and a 103 BRIS fig, but off a 35 day layoff when the maximum is 30. However, he of course misses out on all the juvenile factors and he races close to the pace rather than stalks. Regular rider Luis Saez gets the call aboard the 5-2 second choice from the outside 8 stall for trainer Brad Cox. Update: First Mission was a vet scratch on Friday morning due to a left hind leg issue.
National Treasure marks the return to Triple Crown competition for trainer Bob Baffert, after racing for Tim Yakteen for his last start, a 4th place finish in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). Clearly not a sharp prep, short of BRIS par (scored 97), and beyond the 30 day limit. He did finish second in the American Pharoah (G1) where he scored a career best 101 figure, which meets the juvenile requirements of a stakes placing. He also run close to the pace rather than stalks. John Velazquez, who has been aboard for all 5 of his starts, will be in the irons aboard the 4-1 third choice, breaking from the rail.
Perform won the Federico Tesio Stakes earning a career best 94 figure in the main local prep for the Preakness (but is run at Laurel, instead of Pimlico). This does qualify as a sharp prep but 35 days out. As a juvenile he did not compete in any stakes and ran a best figure of 82. However, he is the only stalker in the field; BRIS has him as "S 3" and he did come from off the pace in the Tesio, mostly because he stumbled at the start, but ran a classic stalking trip when breaking his maiden in the start before the Tesio so we will award him the point. Feargal Lynch, who picked up the ride in the Tesio, retains the mount aboard the 15-1 shot from post 6 for trainer Shug McGaughey.
Chase the Chaos is the longest shot on the morning line at 50-1 and since he tied for minimum points he also ranks last here. He won the El Camino Real Derby (career best BRIS of 90) giving him the required stakes win, but comes here off an 8th place effort in the California Derby, not a sharp prep but inside 30 days. As a juvenile he finished second in the Gold Rush Stakes (BRIS 88), meeting the stakes ITM requirement at 2, but his only graded stakes run was a distant 7th in the San Felipe (G2) so he doesn't earn that point either. Finally, he is officially a "presser" by BRIS ("P 0") but his running lines suggest he closes from off the pace, including from 10 lengths back in the El Camino Real Derby, so we cannot consider him a stalker. Maryland-based jockey Sheldon Russell replaces regular rider and Northern California-based Armando Ayuso on Saturday, breaking from post 2 for trainer Ed Moger Jr.