Afleet Alex, who was 3rd in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, is the only top 3 finisher in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to place in the Derby since 1999.
Breeders' Cup Kentucky Derby Jinx Stats
Date: 02/05/2007
There has been much made of the Kentucky Derby jinx apparently attached to winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but only for the winners. I decided it would be interesting to take a look at the stats for the top three finishers and how they did in the Kentucky Derby. Sad to say, the jinx seems to apply there too, although not as strongly as to the winner. Only two horses who finished in the top three in the Juvenile have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby: Spend A Buck (3rd in 1984) and Alysheba (3rd in 1986). Since then it has been a very long dry spell.
The best a Juvenile winner has managed is 3rd in the Kentucky Derby: Timber Country in 1994 and Chief's Crown in 1984. Of the 66 horses who have finished first, second, or third in the Juvenile between 1984 and 2005, 34 have failed to even start in the Derby and only nine have managed to finish at least third. Timber Country, winner of the Juvenile in 1994, is the only winner to go onto win a Triple Crown race, the 1995 Preakness.
Here is a chart listing all the horses who have finished in the top three in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile with the Kentucky Derby placings. I have also included notes for those who won the Preakness or Belmont. Overall, I would say be very wary of any horses coming out of that race unless they are truly exceptional.
Year
First
Second
Third
Derby Results
Other Triple Crown Impact
2006
Street Sense
Circular Quay
Great Hunter
?
?
?
2005
Stevie Wonderboy
Henny Hughes
First Samurai
-
-
-
2004
Wilko
Afleet Alex
Sun King
6th
3rd
15th
Afleet Alex won the Preakness and Belmont
2003
Action This Day
Minister Eric
Chapel Royal
6th
16th
-
2002
Vindication
Kafwain
Hold That Tiger
-
-
-
2001
Johannesburg
Repent
Siphonic
8th
-
-
2000
Macho Uno
Point Given
Street Cry
-
5th
-
Point Given won the Preakness and Belmont
1999
Anees
Chief Seattle
High Yield
13th
-
15th
1998
Answer Lively
Aly's Alley
Cat Thief
10th
-
3rd
1997
Favorite Trick
Dawson's Legacy
Nationalore
8th
-
9th
1996
Boston Harbor
Acceptable
Ordway
-
-
-
1995
Unbridled's Song
Hennessy
Editor's Note
5th
-
6th
Editor's Note won the Belmont
1994
Timber Country
Eltish
Tejano Run
3rd
6th
2nd
Timber Country won the Preakness
1993
Brocco
Blumin Affair
Tabasco Cat
4th
3rd
6th
Tabasco Cat won the Preakness and Belmont
1992
Gilded Time
It'sali'lknownfact
River Special
-
-
-
1991
Arazi
Bertrando
Snappy Landing
8th
-
17th
1990
Fly So Free
Take Me Out
Lost Mountain
5th
-
12th
1989
Rhythm
Grand Canyon
Slavic
-
-
-
1988
Is It True
Easy Goer
Tagel
-
2nd
-
Easy Goer was 2nd in the Preakness and won the Belmont
1987
Success Express
Regal Classic
Tejano
-
5th
-
1986
Capote
Qualify
Alysheba
eased
-
1st
Alysheba won the Preakness and was 4th in the Belmont
1985
Tasso
Storm Cat
Scat Dancer
-
-
-
1984
Chief's Crown
Tank's Prospect
Spend A Buck
3rd
7th
1st
Tank's Prospect won the Preakness
Triple Crown quick links:
Top Kentucky Derby Contenders - my list of the top horses headed to the Derby with profiles for each with photos, stats, and link to more info like past performances and pedigree.
Analyzing the top 2013 Kentucky Derby contenders - My annual analysis of the top contenders to try and select a winner by matching each to the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner using many of the more popular angles and statistical trends. This year there were is a 3-way tie for the top spot: Goldencents, Normandy Invasion, and Overanalyze.
2013 Kentucky Derby And Oaks Security - New enhanced stricter rules will be enforced this year. Be sure to read the rules as many have changed and more things are banned. There will still be magnetic wand searches of all patrons and many things are no longer allowed. Check here to make sure you don't bring anything they will confiscate.
Review: Triple Crown Handicapper 2013 - by Jim Mazur. Includes lots of stats for all 3 races and explains how to use a system of statistically derived negative angles to eliminate the "bad" picks.
Review: Kentucky Derby Greatest Moments - Commemorative DVD from Churchill Downs with video from 27 different runnings along with interviews, photos, and historical info. Definitely recommended for any racing fan!
Review: Churchill Downs - America's Most Historic Racetrack by Kimberly Gatto. An entertaining and informative account of the history of the track and it's most famous race, the Kentucky Derby, with lots of photos. Definitely recommended.
