Afleet Alex, who was 3rd in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, is the only top 3 finisher in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to place in the Derby since 1999.
Breeders' Cup Kentucky Derby Jinx Stats
There has been much made of the Kentucky Derby jinx apparently attached to winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but only for the winners. I decided it would be interesting to take a look at the stats for the top three finishers and how they did in the Kentucky Derby. Sad to say, the jinx seems to apply there too, although not as strongly as to the winner. Only two horses who finished in the top three in the Juvenile have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby: Spend A Buck (3rd in 1984) and Alysheba (3rd in 1986). Since then it has been a very long dry spell.
The best a Juvenile winner has managed is 3rd in the Kentucky Derby: Timber Country in 1994 and Chief's Crown in 1984. Of the 66 horses who have finished first, second, or third in the Juvenile between 1984 and 2005, 34 have failed to even start in the Derby and only nine have managed to finish at least third. Timber Country, winner of the Juvenile in 1994, is the only winner to go onto win a Triple Crown race, the 1995 Preakness.
Here is a chart listing all the horses who have finished in the top three in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile with the Kentucky Derby placings. I have also included notes for those who won the Preakness or Belmont. Overall, I would say be very wary of any horses coming out of that race unless they are truly exceptional.
Other Triple Crown Impact
Afleet Alex won the Preakness and Belmont
Action This Day
Hold That Tiger
Point Given won the Preakness and Belmont
Editor's Note won the Belmont
Timber Country won the Preakness
Tabasco Cat won the Preakness and Belmont
Fly So Free
Take Me Out
Is It True
Easy Goer was 2nd in the Preakness and won the Belmont
Alysheba won the Preakness and was 4th in the Belmont
Spend A Buck
Tank's Prospect won the Preakness
Triple Crown quick links:
Top Kentucky Derby Contenders - my list of the top horses headed to the Derby with profiles for each with photos, stats, and link to more info like past performances and pedigree.
Analyzing the top 2013 Kentucky Derby contenders - My annual analysis of the top contenders to try and select a winner by matching each to the profile of a Kentucky Derby winner using many of the more popular angles and statistical trends. This year there were is a 3-way tie for the top spot: Goldencents, Normandy Invasion, and Overanalyze.
2013 Kentucky Derby And Oaks Security - New enhanced stricter rules will be enforced this year. Be sure to read the rules as many have changed and more things are banned. There will still be magnetic wand searches of all patrons and many things are no longer allowed. Check here to make sure you don't bring anything they will confiscate.
Review: Triple Crown Handicapper 2013 - by Jim Mazur. Includes lots of stats for all 3 races and explains how to use a system of statistically derived negative angles to eliminate the "bad" picks.
Review: Kentucky Derby Greatest Moments - Commemorative DVD from Churchill Downs with video from 27 different runnings along with interviews, photos, and historical info. Definitely recommended for any racing fan!
Review: Churchill Downs - America's Most Historic Racetrack by Kimberly Gatto. An entertaining and informative account of the history of the track and it's most famous race, the Kentucky Derby, with lots of photos. Definitely recommended.