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Baffert and Point Determined in the paddock at Churchill
From The Stick Studio, Florida
This Article is being printed by permission of the author to Cindy Pierson-Dulay's Horse-Races.Net Exclusivly.
*BARBARO'S BIGGEST CHALLENGE*
This is an UNDEFEATED 3 Year Old ! The Laurel Futurity, Tropical Park Derby, Holy Bull and Florida Derby trophies all belong to him. His five lifetime victories from five starts has earned him in excess of $800,000+
He's won on Turf and on Dirt in Stakes Races against his fellow 3 Year Olds. This is worthy of examining because it shows an ability to adapt and an ability to win when asked to face new obstacles. This ability may very well help him to win in great void of uncertainty that is the Kentucky Derby X-Factor.
His victory in the Florida Derby was very impressive and a strong show of brute power to wear down a worthy rival. When one considers that the second place finisher, Sharp Humor, was running a very strong and powerful race, it is clear that Barbaro is a BEAST ! Sharp Humor did everything that he was supposed to do to successfully win the Florida Derby. In fact, if Barbaro had not run in that race, everyone would be talking about Sharp Humor's giant victory in the Florida Derby. What makes this race worthy of record and noting is the fact that all the horses in the Florida Derby ran with equal weights. All things Equal, Barbaro crushed his rivals. Even when things were not even, and Barbaro had to carry more weight, he still crushed his rivals.
Barbaro is a Giant Figure looking on the Triple Crown horizon. Trainer Mike Matz has a great horse on his hands, and with Edgar Prado riding him, this is going to be a very nice horse to watch in the future.
Remember all those years Bob Baffert has won the Kentucky Derby and many times just missed a Triple Crown? Well, this year Baff is back with a vengeance!
While a Triple Crown remains Baff's main goal, he has assembled a Triple Threat !
Bob and John has won the Wood Memorial. In so doing, he defeated a top Todd Pletcher Trainee, Keyed Entry, and the late closing Jazil. If B and J had not stumbled at the break in the San Felipe, he might have put together a solid 4 race win streak coming into the Derby. Also, if your Baff, do you want "Go go Gomez" up or Victor Espinoza ? Both have shown great promise with the horse. This Seeking the Gold colt may well be a work in progress well on his way to becoming a star. DO NOT COUNT THIS ONE OUT ! He can score and/or be in the money at a nice price. We like this horse and think he will be a force down the road.
Sinister Minister is the horse with the ominous sounding name. However, his victory in the Grade 1 Blue Grass was no fluke.It was a BLOWOUT ! It is very likely that this horse wants to go long and that his early career loses were the result of inexperience and being green. When one looks at the fractional times of the Blue Grass. one has to say...."WOW". If your Garret Gomez do you want this horse or do you want Bob and John ? Whichever one you pick, you know in the back of your mind that the other one has a solid chance of winning the Derby and going on to becoming a Tripel Crown Winner. While other jockey's may envy Garret's choices, I honestly feel sympathy for him. One can only imagine the stress and angst "Go go" will feel having to ride against one of the horses he won a major grade one stake with.
Point Determined has been the Baffert West's point leader. With impecable breeding and a $750,000 price tag, this one was bred to run well. Look at the bloodlines....Point Given out of a Broad Brush mare, it just does not get any better than that. In addition, Point Determined comes from off the pace, and has been improving against the likes of another likely favorite, Brother Derek. Point Determined is showing some trouble lines with his gate breaking abilities, but then he shows considerable power to catch and close against top level fields. Should he get a clear outside trip....Point Determined could bring home the Roses this Saturday. Whats more, you should be getting 10-1 or better on this one. Thats a gift considering if he had won his last two, instead of being second, he would probably be the 3-1 morning line favorite for beating other top contenders in this field.
*JAZIL'S BIG CHANCE*
Who was that bluff running on late in the Wood Memorial? Jazil? What is a Jazil? It sounds like a new type of cajun gumbo. "I'll have the Jazil with my Jambalaya please". Jazil is obviously some middle eastern name that its Shadwell/Dubai owners came up with that is a favorable term or name in their country.
Jazil has a unique feature in this years Kentucky Derby. He has the "Woodchopper" factor. That means he is the solid deep closer who likes to come from out of the clouds late and fly through the stretch. Sort of like Strike the Gold did for Nick Zito. Kiaran McLaughlin is a fantastic trainer, and he is showing signs of improving his game enough to compete at the highest levels in the sport.
While it is hard to figure out what happened in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, its not hard to figure out that Jazil needs to be taken to the back of the pack early on and then let loose through the stretch run of the Kentucky Derby to have his best chance to win. Its a little hard to figure out if he can negotiate all the tiring traffic in that will be in front of him, but one thing is for sure....when Jazil gets rolling late, the entire field will be in his sight's.
We are going to be very busy formulating out Stick Speed Figures and SVI Value Index's for this years Run for the Roses. I have a feeling we're going to see something special this year. Please enjoy it live on track or at your favorite simulcast, or at home with a fabulous Kentucky Derby party. This race embodies America, and Americana. Enjoy it with your friends and families, and remember, its a very wide open race with many possible outcomes.
We want to Welcome all new fans to visit us at www.TheStickHorseRacing.Com
Best Regards and remember to enjoy the most celebrated
day of American Thoroughbred Racing,
MC, "The Stick"
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