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Justify Triple Crown Gear

Afleet Alex, who was 3rd in the 2005 Kentucky Derby, is the only top 3 finisher in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile to place in the Derby since 1999.

Breeders' Cup Kentucky Derby Jinx Stats

Date: 02/05/2007

There has been much made of the Kentucky Derby jinx apparently attached to winning the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but only for the winners. I decided it would be interesting to take a look at the stats for the top three finishers and how they did in the Kentucky Derby. Sad to say, the jinx seems to apply there too, although not as strongly as to the winner. Only two horses who finished in the top three in the Juvenile have gone on to win the Kentucky Derby: Spend A Buck (3rd in 1984) and Alysheba (3rd in 1986). Since then it has been a very long dry spell.

The best a Juvenile winner has managed is 3rd in the Kentucky Derby: Timber Country in 1994 and Chief's Crown in 1984. Of the 66 horses who have finished first, second, or third in the Juvenile between 1984 and 2005, 34 have failed to even start in the Derby and only nine have managed to finish at least third. Timber Country, winner of the Juvenile in 1994, is the only winner to go onto win a Triple Crown race, the 1995 Preakness.

Here is a chart listing all the horses who have finished in the top three in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile with the Kentucky Derby placings. I have also included notes for those who won the Preakness or Belmont. Overall, I would say be very wary of any horses coming out of that race unless they are truly exceptional.

YearFirstSecondThirdOther Triple
Crown Impact
2006Street SenseCircular QuayGreat Hunter 
2005Stevie WonderboyHenny HughesFirst Samurai 
2004WilkoAfleet AlexSun KingAfleet Alex won the Preakness and Belmont
2003Action This DayMinister EricChapel Royal 
2002VindicationKafwainHold That Tiger 
2000Macho UnoPoint GivenStreet CryPoint Given won the Preakness and Belmont
1999AneesChief SeattleHigh Yield 
1998Answer LivelyAly's AlleyCat Thief 
1997Favorite TrickDawson's LegacyNationalore 
1996Boston HarborAcceptableOrdway 
1995Unbridled's SongHennessyEditor's NoteEditor's Note won the Belmont
1994Timber CountryEltishTejano RunTimber Country won the Preakness
1993BroccoBlumin AffairTabasco CatTabasco Cat won the Preakness and Belmont
1992Gilded TimeIt'sali'lknownfactRiver Special 
1991AraziBertrandoSnappy Landing 
1990Fly So FreeTake Me OutLost Mountain 
1989RhythmGrand CanyonSlavic 
1988Is It TrueEasy GoerTagelEasy Goer was 2nd in the Preakness and won the Belmont
1987Success ExpressRegal ClassicTejano 
1986CapoteQualifyAlyshebaAlysheba won the Preakness and was 4th in the Belmont
1985TassoStorm CatScat Dancer 
1984Chief's CrownTank's ProspectSpend A BuckTank's Prospect won the Preakness

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