Looking to handicap the Derby? Follow this 10-step program

That's the premise behind what we modestly call the Ten Commandments for Derby Handicapping, which are presented here again.

Starting in 1992, every Derby winner has met at least eight of our 10 criteria, and only '96 winner Grindstone failed to meet nine or 10 of 10. Five of the past six winners scored better on our checklist than the post-time Derby favorites they defeated.

We have a good idea who's running in the May 2 Derby -- major race winners Cape Town, Event of the Year, Favorite Trick, Halory Hunter, Indian Charlie, Real Quiet and Victory Gallop, as well as Artax, Chilito, Comic Strip, Hanuman Highway, Old Trieste, Parade Ground, Shot of Gold and Yarrow Brae.

Now, let's see how the contenders measure up. The big, stone tablets, please:

1. Prefer horses whose pedigree, measured by the controversial but effective "dosage index," shows the stamina to win a 1 1/4-mile race.

Of the 1998 horses, Favorite Trick, Real Quiet and Yarrow Brae have dosage indexes on the high (wrong) side of 4.00.

2. Prefer horses who were counted among the leaders of their age group for the previous season -- rated within 10 pounds of the leader in the Experimental Free Handicap of 2-year-old colts and geldings.

Favorite Trick was the top 2-year-old in '97. Nobody else in the Derby was within 10 pounds, although Real Quiet, Old Triest, Artax and Cape Town didn't miss by much.

3. Prefer horses who won races of one mile or more as 2-year-olds.

Demerits for Indian Charlie, Event of the Year, Chilito, Shot of Gold and Yarrow Brae.

4. Throw out horses who didn't win any race at age 2. No such late bloomer has won the Derby since Proud Clarion in '67.

Bad news for Shot of Gold (who fails on four other criteria anyway).

5. Prefer horses who had three or four races -- no more, no less -- between Jan. 1 and the Derby. Every winner since '84 had three or four.

Favorite Trick had two races following his long winter rest. Victory Gallop and Old Trieste had two. Comic Strip had five. Lil's Lad will miss the Derby after chipping an ankle in the Blue Grass Stakes -- his fifth start of '98.

6. Toss out any horse who didn't prep in a 1 1/8-mile race.

Old Trieste ran a mile at Santa Anita earlier in the month. He's a talented horse who can't possibly be ready for the Derby.

7. Prefer horses who finished third or better in their final preps, like 38 of the past 40 Derby winner.

Well, this is no fun: Every Derby candidate meets the criterion this time.

8. Don't be too impressed by horses who won their final preps. The past six Derby winners saved their best for the first Saturday in May.

This is good news for fans of Favorite Trick (third in the Arkansas Derby) and Real Quiet and Artax (second and third in the Santa Anita Derby).

9. Prefer horses ridden by jockeys of national renown.

This is a weakness for Event of the Year (with Northern California king Russell Baze riding), Hanuman Highway (David Flores), Chilito (Gary Boulanger) and Yarrow Brae (Willie Martinez).

And:

10. Don't bet on the post-time favorite.

The Daily Racing Form lists Santa Anita Derby winner Indian Charlie as a 5-2 favorite. It's a dubious honor seeing that no favorite has won the Derby since Spectacular Bid in '79.

So, who's qualified to wear the roses?

Nobody's a perfect 10-for-10.

The most suspect of the big-name horses in the race are undefeated Indian Charlie and Jim Beam Stakes winner Event of the Year (each met only six of 10 standards) and Arkansas Derby winner Victory Gallop and Comic Strip (each only seven for 10).

Of the major-race winners, Favorite Trick, Halory Hunter, Cape Town and Real Quiet pass eight of the 10 tests, meaning they're qualified for Derby glory. And Artax meets nine of the 10 criteria, meaning you've got to decide if his dull finish in the Santa Anita Derby was just an off day or indicated a distance limitation.

Recent history says one of those five will be the next Derby winner.